Oliver’s insights – The five reasons why the $A is likely to rise further – if recession is avoided

10 July

Key points – After a soft patch since 2021, there is good reason to expect the $A to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative;...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 2023-24 saw strong investment returns again – but can it continue?

3 July

Key points – 2023-24 provided another year of strong returns for investors as shares were boosted by falling inflation, central banks pivoting towards rate cuts (although is RBA is lagging) and economic conditions were better than feared. –...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights The 9 most important things I have learned about investing over 40 years

26 June

Key points – My nine most important lessons from investing over the past 40 years are: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; it’s hard to get markets right; investment...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Not another Eurozone crisis! – The rise of the far right in Europe, the French election and implications for investors

19 June

Key points – The success of far-right political parties in EU parliamentary elections & the calling of an election in France have boosted uncertainty by risking a return to the Eurozone crises. – However, centrist parties still dominate in...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Australian home prices were up again in May – but the tension between high rates and the chronic housing shortage remains

5 June

Key points – CoreLogic data showed national average home prices rose 0.8% in May, their strongest rise since last October. – The housing market remains remarkably resilient with the housing shortage and still solid jobs market providing...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights The US presidential election – implications for investors and Australia

29 May

Key points – The run up to the 5th November US election could see increased share market volatility if Trump remains ahead and investors focus on the risks of a new trade war and a hit to the US labour force and to the Fed under Trump. –...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – The next move in the RBA cash rate likely remains down later this year

22 May

Key points – While the near-term risks for the RBA cash rate are probably on the upside, the most likely scenario is that the RBA holds rates ahead of rate cuts starting later this year. – The March quarter US and Australian inflation scare is...[Read More]

Oliver’s Insights – The economic impact of the 2024 Federal Budget

15 May

The 2024-25 Budget – another surplus, but bigger medium term deficits with more big spending, including on a “Future Made in Australia”   Key points   – The budget this year is expected to show a surplus of $9.3bn thanks to a...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Seasonal patterns in shares – should we “sell in May and go away”?

8 May

Key points – Seasonal patterns in shares gave rise to the saying “sell in May and go away, buy again on St Leger’s Day.” – However, seasonal patterns can’t always be relied on so while investors should be aware of them, betting on them...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights The art of happiness – economics and the “hedonic treadmill”

1 May

Key points – Despite a big rise in GDP per person, surveyed measures of happiness have been flat to falling in the US and Australia. – Younger people in the US, Canada, Australia and NZ are the least happy age group. This is a major change from...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Israel/Iran fears and rate cut uncertainty – shares are vulnerable to a bout of volatility but here’s five reasons why the trend will likely remain up

17 April

Key points – After strong gains, shares are vulnerable to a pull back or more volatile/constrained returns than seen so far this year. – The key threats at present are Iran’s attack on Israel which risks escalating the war in the Middle East,...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

10 April

Key points – The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be. – Australian housing is expensive and highly indebted; but it’s very diverse; mortgage arrears remain low; interest rates...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Seven lasting impacts from the COVID pandemic

27 March

Key points – Seven key lasting impacts from the Coronavirus pandemic are: “bigger” government; tighter labour markets; reduced globalisation and increased geopolitical tensions; higher inflation; worse housing affordability; working from...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Bitcoin to infinity and beyond…again!

13 March

Key points – Bitcoin has made it to new record highs, helped recently by the advent of ETFs that invest directly into it. – While blockchain technology has promise, the use case for Bitcoin is hard to determine making it impossible to...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 21 great investment quotes

6 March

Introduction Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these. This note revisits a series on insightful quotes on investing I first started a...[Read More]