Economist
Oliver’s insights – Shares around record highs as inflation slides – but what are the risks?
2 October
Key points – Recession risks, the escalating Israel conflict, the US election along with still stretched valuations mean a high risk of another share market correction and continued volatility. – The expansion of the war around Israel and Iran...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Will house prices crash? And what’s needed to fix housing affordability
28 August
Key points – Predictions of an Australian house price crash create lots of interest but have been a dime a dozen over the last 20 yrs. – However, there is more to the surge in property prices than easy money with a supply shortfall being the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Why super and growth assets like shares really are long term investments
21 August
Key points – While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds and cash, they provide superior long-term returns. So, it makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. – The best approach...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on – where are they now?
14 August
Key points – Shares have hit a rough patch since recent highs with concerns about the growth outlook. – We remain upbeat on a 12-month view as falling inflation allows rate cuts and hopefully recession is avoided or is mild. But the risk of a...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Recession fears & share mkt falls – what it means for the RBA & investors?
7 August
Key points – The risk of recession is high. – The falls in shares and commodity prices reflect this. – Lower growth and recession would mean a high risk of the inflation rate undershooting the RBA’s inflation target. – The RBA should be...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The rise of populism and bigger government – what it means for investors
24 July
Key points – The continuing rise of populism globally – as evident in recent European elections and in the US with Trump and the Republican party – is signalling an ongoing shift away from economic rationalist policies in favour of greater...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian shares at new record highs – is it sustainable?
17 July
Key points – With Australian shares reaching a new record high we have revised up our slightly our expectations for the ASX 200 this year (from 7900 to 8100) reflecting prospects for lower interest rates globally and eventually in Australia...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The five reasons why the $A is likely to rise further – if recession is avoided
10 July
Key points – After a soft patch since 2021, there is good reason to expect the $A to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative;...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2023-24 saw strong investment returns again – but can it continue?
3 July
Key points – 2023-24 provided another year of strong returns for investors as shares were boosted by falling inflation, central banks pivoting towards rate cuts (although is RBA is lagging) and economic conditions were better than feared. –...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights The 9 most important things I have learned about investing over 40 years
26 June
Key points – My nine most important lessons from investing over the past 40 years are: there is always a cycle; the crowd gets it wrong at extremes; what you pay for an investment matters a lot; it’s hard to get markets right; investment...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Not another Eurozone crisis! – The rise of the far right in Europe, the French election and implications for investors
19 June
Key points – The success of far-right political parties in EU parliamentary elections & the calling of an election in France have boosted uncertainty by risking a return to the Eurozone crises. – However, centrist parties still dominate in...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian home prices were up again in May – but the tension between high rates and the chronic housing shortage remains
5 June
Key points – CoreLogic data showed national average home prices rose 0.8% in May, their strongest rise since last October. – The housing market remains remarkably resilient with the housing shortage and still solid jobs market providing...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights The US presidential election – implications for investors and Australia
29 May
Key points – The run up to the 5th November US election could see increased share market volatility if Trump remains ahead and investors focus on the risks of a new trade war and a hit to the US labour force and to the Fed under Trump. –...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The next move in the RBA cash rate likely remains down later this year
22 May
Key points – While the near-term risks for the RBA cash rate are probably on the upside, the most likely scenario is that the RBA holds rates ahead of rate cuts starting later this year. – The March quarter US and Australian inflation scare is...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The economic impact of the 2024 Federal Budget
15 May
The 2024-25 Budget – another surplus, but bigger medium term deficits with more big spending, including on a “Future Made in Australia” Key points – The budget this year is expected to show a surplus of $9.3bn thanks to a...[Read More]