Economist
Oliver’s insights – Seven things you need to know about the Australian property market
10 April
Key points – The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be. – Australian housing is expensive and highly indebted; but it’s very diverse; mortgage arrears remain low; interest rates...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Seven lasting impacts from the COVID pandemic
27 March
Key points – Seven key lasting impacts from the Coronavirus pandemic are: “bigger” government; tighter labour markets; reduced globalisation and increased geopolitical tensions; higher inflation; worse housing affordability; working from...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Bitcoin to infinity and beyond…again!
13 March
Key points – Bitcoin has made it to new record highs, helped recently by the advent of ETFs that invest directly into it. – While blockchain technology has promise, the use case for Bitcoin is hard to determine making it impossible to...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 21 great investment quotes
6 March
Introduction Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these. This note revisits a series on insightful quotes on investing I first started a...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Seven key charts for investors to watch – where are they now?
28 February
Key points – Shares have made it to record highs this year but after strong gains are a bit vulnerable to a near term pull back. – However, we remain upbeat on a 12-month view as falling inflation allows rate cuts and hopefully recession is...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – investment outlook Q&A
14 February
Recession risks, rates and inflation, valuations, geopolitics, the US election and Swiftonomics Key points – Rate hikes have worked in helping slow inflation and rate cuts are likely this year. Expect a bumpy ride though. – The risk of...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 05/02/24
7 February
Key points – The Australian Government’s changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts have refocussed attention on the need for tax reform. – The Australian tax system has five key problems: it’s heavily reliant on income tax; it’s complicated by...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Falling inflation – what does it mean for investors?
17 January
Key points – Inflation is in retreat thanks to improved supply and cooling demand. A further fall is likely this year. – Australian inflation remains relatively high – but this mainly reflects lags rather than a more inflation prone...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2023 saw the return of Goldilocks, but what’s in store for 2024 for investors?
10 January
Key points – 2023 turned out to be a strong year for investors with shares and bonds rallying on the back of falling inflation, the anticipation of interest rate cuts in 2024 and better than feared economic growth. There were bumps along the way,...[Read More]
End of year wrap 2023 – What we learnt and where to next
20 December
In this webinar, join AMP’s Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, and Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist, as they reflect on 2023 and answer the most asked questions impacting the year ahead. CLICK HERE to view the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2023 saw the return of Goldilocks, but what’s in store for 2024 for investors?
13 December
Key points – The five key themes for 2023 were: better than feared growth; disinflation; peak interest rates (probably in Australia too); lots of geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared; and AI hit the big time. This boosted shares and...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The RBA leaves rates on hold – have we finally reached the top?
7 December
Key points – At its December meeting the RBA left rates on hold but retained a tightening bias with still relatively hawkish commentary. – Our concern remains that the RBA has tightened more than necessary with a high risk of recession next...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Five reasons to expect the $A to rise – providing recession is avoided
29 November
Key points – Since its February 2021 high of nearly $US0.80 the $A has fallen on the back of worries about the global growth outlook, worries about China, the strong $US and relatively less aggressive monetary tightening by the RBA. – However,...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – nine key things for successful investing
22 November
Key points – Successful investing is not always easy and can be stressful. Even in good times. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things in mind. – The nine key things are: make the most of compound interest;...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights Australian home prices up on supply shortfall, but at risk from high rates
1 November
Key points – Australian home prices rose again in October, with the supply shortfall on the back of record immigration dominating. Prices are now on track for a 9% gain this year. – While the supply shortfall is likely to continue there is a...[Read More]